The PGA Tour heads to Ontario, Canada next week for the 2024 RBC Canadian Open at Hamilton Golf Club. While Rory McIlroy is the odds-on favorite at +330, the wide-open field provides ample opportunity for surprises according to expert predictions.
SportsLine's golf simulation model has evaluated the field for the Canadian Open 10,000 times. The model, built by DFS pro Mike McClure, has correctly predicted the last 12 major golf championships and earned almost $9,000 for bettors since the restart of the PGA Tour in 2020.
Some surprising picks to emerge from the model's simulations include Taylor Pendrith at odds of 65-1 and Mark Hubbard at 80-1. Pendrith, who hails from nearby Ontario, has played well recently with a win at the Byron Nelson and top-15 finishes in his last four starts. The model also sees value in backing Canadian Nick Taylor, the defending champion, at 70-1 odds to repeat.
In addition, the model is fading Tommy Fleetwood, who has struggled in recent months despite being listed at second favorite behind McIlroy at +1800. SportsLine's model only has Fleetwood finishing outside the top five. Bettors would be wise to consider the model's predictions when evaluating potential upset picks in what shapes as an open Canadian Open field.
2024 RBC Canadian Open odds, field
Rory McIlroy +330
Tommy Fleetwood +1800
Sahith Theegala +2000
Shane Lowry +2200
Cameron Young +2200
Sam Burns +2500
Alex Noren +2500
Corey Conners +2500
Adam Scott +3000
Keith Mitchell +3500
Maverick McNealy +4000
Aaron Rai +4500
Mackenzie Hughes +4500
Akshay Bhatia +5000
Tom Kim +5000
Davis Thompson +5000
Erik van Rooyen +5500
Adam Hadwin +5500
Taylor Pendrith +6000
Kevin Yu +7000
Nick Taylor +7000
Matt Wallace +7500
Daniel Berger +7500
Doug Ghim +8000
Ryan Fox +8000
Mark Hubbard +8000
Ben Griffin +8000
Nicolai Hojgaard +8000
Robert MacIntyre +8000
Beau Hossler +8000
Ryo Hisatsune +9000
Davis Riley +9000
Thorbjorn Olesen +9000
Seamus Power +10000
Eric Cole +10000
Adam Svensson +10000
Sam Stevens +11000
Greyson Sigg +11000
K.H. Lee +11000
S.H. Kim +11000
Luke List +11000
Matt Kuchar +12000
Andrew Novak +12000
Chan Kim +12000
Jhonattan Vegas +12000
Joseph Bramlett +12000
Nate Lashley +12000
Justin Lower +12000
Victor Perez +12000
Michael Kim +12000
Bud Cauley +12000
Sam Ryder +15000
Mac Meissner +15000
Chesson Hadley +15000
Kevin Tway +15000
Matti Schmid +15000
Ben Silverman +15000
C.T. Pan +15000
J.J. Spaun +15000
Gary Woodland +15000
How to make 2024 RBC Canadian Open picks
Consider longshot options highlighted by the proven SportsLine model like Taylor Pendrith (+6500), Mark Hubbard (+8000), and Nick Taylor (+7000). The model gives these players among the best chances to win based on form and course history.
Look beyond top names with lower odds. While Rory McIlroy (+330) and Tommy Fleetwood (+1800) are favorites, the model isn't high on Fleetwood's chances and simulates others finishing higher.
Pay attention to in-form players. Pendrith, Hubbard and Taylor have been playing well recently with top finishes, showing current form is important on prediction.
Factor in local/nationality advantages. Pendrith and Taylor being from Canada/Ontario may help motivation and course familiarity at a homeland event.
Consult the model's projected leaderboard. It not only gives win odds but simulates where players are most likely to finish, helping with betting options beyond the winner.
Consider longer shots recommended by the model's stats, like Matthew Jordan (+25000), Dean Burmester (+30000) and Francesco Laporta (+40000).
Make singles and top-5/10 bets in addition to outright winners to improve odds and cover position finish upside.
Trust the guidance of a model with a strong track record predicting golf results and majors. Its insights can give an edge over betting favorites.
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