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The PGA Tour is heading to TPC River Highlands in Cromwell, Connecticut this week for the 2024 Travelers Championship. SportsLine's advanced golf prediction model, which has accurately predicted the winner of 13 major championships, has revealed some surprising picks to contend at this year's Travelers Championship.
Topping the odds board at 4-1 is world number one Scottie Scheffler. However, the model does not expect Scheffler to defend his title from last year's championship. While Scheffler enters in strong form with top-10 finishes in four of his last five starts, the model questions his accuracy off the tee and one-putt percentage, which could hinder his chances.
(USATSI)
Another player the model is fading is 2022 champion Xander Schauffele at 15-2 odds. Schauffele has recorded just one win in his last 42 PGA Tour starts and currently ranks outside the top 30 in both accuracy and one-putts. Given his recent mediocre approach play from 50-125 yards out, Schauffele is expected to finish outside the top five according to the model's simulations.
(Mike Ehrmann/Getty Images)
Some surprise contenders predicted to shine include Japan's Hideki Matsuyama at favorable 28-1 odds. Matsuyama arrives in impressive current form with top-15 finishes in six of his last eight starts, including a victory. His elite ball-striking ability has him ranked near the top in total strokes gained. With his solid scrambling skills, Matsuyama presents a strong value pick.
The model also likes three other golfers priced at 25-1 or higher to contend, including a massive longshot expected to stun the field. SportsLine players can get their 2024 Travelers Championship predictions and projected leaderboard from the proven golf model before locking in any picks. With major winners like Xander Schauffele and Collin Morikawa in the field, surprises could be in store at this year's Travelers Championship.
What are the key factors that make Hideki Matsuyama a strong value pick
(Harry How)
Going into this week's Travelers Championship, Hideki Matsuyama is particularly notable for a few reasons. The most important thing is his form right now, which has been exceptional lately. Six of his last eight PGA Tour events have seen him finish in the top 12, including a victory at the Genesis Invitational.
Matsuyama has been playing incredibly solid golf and clearly arrived at TPC River Highlands with a lot of confidence. A big reason for his success is his ball-striking ability. The stats show he's fourth on tour in total strokes gained and 15th in approach play, highlighting his accurate iron play.
Another aspect of Matsuyama's game that can't be overlooked is his scrambling prowess. He sits third on tour in scrambling percentage this season at just under 70%. That short game prowess is so important, as it allows him to regularly save par even when he misses the fairway or green.
When you combine Matsuyama's recent results, his elite ball-striking and scrambling skill, it's easy to see why he sets up well at this course. On top of that, his odds of 28-1 seem very fair given his solid play. While others have shorter odds, Matsuyama could be a real value pick to contend. All in all, his all-around game and current form make him one to watch at the Travelers Championship.
2024 Travelers Championship odds, field
Favorites:
Scottie Scheffler (4-1)
Xander Schauffele (15-2)
Ludvig Aberg (16-1)
Collin Morikawa (16-1)
Longshots:
Hideki Matsuyama (28-1)
Viktor Hovland (22-1)
Patrick Cantlay (25-1)
Sam Burns (35-1)
Surprising Predictions:
Xander Schauffele, the 2022 champion, may struggle and finish outside the top five due to inconsistent performance in certain areas.
Hideki Matsuyama, a 28-1 longshot, is a strong value pick due to his impressive ball-striking abilities.
Past Champions:
Scottie Scheffler ($12,500)
Xander Schauffele ($11,200)
Ludvig Åberg ($10,200)
Patrick Cantlay ($9,600)
Hideki Matsuyama ($9,200)
Tony Finau ($8,900)
Keegan Bradley ($8,700)
Russell Henley ($8,600)
Corey Conners ($8,400)
Brian Harman ($8,300)
Tom Kim ($8,100)
Adam Scott ($7,700)
Jason Day ($7,400)
Akshay Bhatia ($7,200)
Will Zalatoris ($7,100)
Séamus Power ($6,500)
Adam Svensson ($6,400).
Model Predictions:
McClure's model, which has accurately predicted 13 golf majors, including the 2024 Masters, PGA Championship, and U.S. Open, has simulated the tournament 10,000 times to predict the leaderboard
See the model's top picks and predictions here!
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